Enthusiastic Democratic Turnout in Iowa Reflects Strength of Grassroots Organization

• The Iowa caucus was an opportunity to test our organization and expand our volunteer base as we move toward November, and Tuesday’s results showed an incredible amount of enthusiasm for the President’s reelection, and to preserve the change that we’ve delivered together.
  
  • 25,000 Iowans turned out to talk about the President's record and vision to restore security to the middle class.
  • 7,500 Iowans pledged to volunteer and work for the campaign.
  • Compare that to the fraction of that number that turned out for President Bush in 2004 in a similar uncontested caucus.

• That didn’t happen overnight, and the Republicans shouldn’t expect to build something like this overnight.
  
  • We didn’t enter this campaign stringing together a database – the President kept supporters engaged through Organizing for America.
  • Many of the same supporters who elected him in 2008 were essential in achieving the administration’s legislative accomplishments.

• We’ve been building and mobilizing our tested and trained neighborhood teams, led by thousands of core volunteers in every state. They’re talking to voters over the phone, at doorsteps and in living rooms, coffee shops and community centers across the country:
  
  • Reaching more than 511,000 voters in Nevada.
  • Organizing 2,633 events in Florida.

Romney Falters Against Weak Republican Field, Departs Iowa Beholden to Tea Party

• A day after predicting victory and after six years of trying to win Iowa, Mitt Romney fell short of the vote total he received in 2008, even though this Republican field is significantly weaker.

• It was a poor performance from a candidate who did everything possible to win – even sacrificing principles to become the self-professed Tea Party candidate and to get to the right of Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich.

• Romney’s attempt to win Iowa came at a high cost. He’s leaving Iowa with significant primary baggage that will weigh him down if he gets to the general election, including:  

• Promising to veto the DREAM Act and denying a chance at citizenship to young immigrants here through no fault of their own and who want to serve America.
• Belittling the President’s $1,000 dollar middle-class tax cut as a “little Band-Aid,” even though his own plan offers typical middle-class families only $54.
• Doubling down on his idea to “let Detroit go bankrupt,” even though the President’s rescue of the auto industry saved more than 1.4 million American jobs.
• Saying that he’d let the foreclosure process “hit the bottom” so investors can come in and make a quick buck. 
• Backing Republican budgets that would end Medicare as we know it, gut Social Security and slash funding for higher education.
• Criticizing the President for ending the war in Iraq and saying he’d leave 30,000 troops on the ground with no plan for withdrawal.

• But with three-quarters of Iowa Republicans doubting him, Rick Santorum at his flank and South Carolina in his sights, we’ll see if Romney tacks even further to the right. We already know Romney and Santorum agree that we should go back to the days of letting Wall Street write its own rules, on ending Medicare as we know it, and that the middle class is to blame for its struggles.  

• Just this morning, Romney signaled that he’d launch new attacks on Santorum – just like he did Newt Gingrich.  

• While Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum battle it out in a state that Mitt Romney should handily win, the President is continuing to fight to restore middle-class security. He’s making sure the first-ever Wall Street watchdog caninform consumers and protect them from mortgage brokers, payday and student loan lenders and debt collectors.

Data from Iowa Caucus: Republicans Unenthusiastic, Romney Underperforms

·         Turnout was low and Republicans are not excited about their candidates.

o   No increase over 2008 Republican turnout: 2012 caucus turnout barely exceeded 2008 Republican total turnout (122,000 vs. 119,000), but did not increase as a share of all registered voters. 

o   Republicans less enthusiastic than 2008: Self-identified Republicans were not excited about this election, and 10,000 fewer of them turned out to caucus in 2012 than 2008 (according to Entrance Polls).

·         In an election he should have won, Romney performed well below expectations.

o   Romney turnout and vote share lower than 2008: Romney actually got six fewer votes than he did in 2008, and more importantly received nearly two points less of the vote share.

o   Lowest winning percentage ever:  The lowest historical winning percentage for a Republican Iowa caucus winner had been 26 percent by Bob Dole in 1996. Dole, another candidate Republicans were not too enthusiastic about, lost to Bill Clinton by over 200 Electoral Votes (379 to 159).

o   Romney outspent everyone else, especially chief competitor Rick Santorum: Romney spent $4.5 million on media, compared to $642,000 for Santorum. This translates to $149 in spending for each Romney caucus vote, compared to $21 per vote for Santorum.

·         Romney performed poorly with several key groups.

o   Between 2008 and 2012, Romney lost support among the middle class: In 2008 Romney won 20 percent of middle-class voters making less than $50,000, but in 2012 Romney won just 16 percent of these voters. He finished a distant third in this category in 2012. 

o   Little Romney Independent Support: Ron Paul received over twice the support of Romney among Independents (43 percent to 19 percent). Despite the field being far more conservative in 2012 than 2008, Romney got the same percent of Independents in 2012 as he did in 2008 (19 percent).

o   Decreased support among youth: Romney’s support among those aged 17-29 fell from 22 percent in 2008 to 13 percent in 2012.

·         Republican voters reluctantly voted for Romney:

o   Moral Character: Romney finished 4th among those voters who thought the most important candidate quality was "Strong Moral Character".

o   Doubts? Romney did win one category of voters – those who said they have "reservations" about their candidates gave Romney a plurality of their votes.

o   Late Breakers abandoned Romney: Santorum beat Romney by eleven points among late deciders (decided in “last few days” – entrance poll).