Scott Baker published Bernie is crushing Hillary in a (real) primary no one noticed. in News 2016-03-08 04:31:57 -0500
It’s interesting to note the strength Obama and Sanders both show among Democrats Abroad. Perhaps Democrats living in other countries have gained perspective on political possibilities in other places? Or a keener sense of global social injustice? Or, more prosaically, could it be that more moderate and conservative Hillary voters are more motivated to obtain and send in absentee ballots?
Read the full Daily Kos article here.
Scott Baker published Primaires US: les démocrates azuréens ont voté ce samedi in News 2016-03-07 05:09:14 -0500
Une centaine d'Américains ont participé au scrutin permettant aux membres du parti démocrate vivant à l'étranger de désigner les délégués qui éliront leur candidat à la présidentielle.
Read the full Nice-Matin article (in French) here.
Scott Baker published Democratic and Republican Voters Have Vastly Different Priorities in News 2016-03-02 03:05:37 -0500
Early exit polls showed a wide difference between Democrats and Republicans on whether they wanted a candidate to "have experience" or to "be an outsider." And that trend bore out across states — across the first nine Democratic contests, 74 to 86 percent of voters wanted a candidate who had experience. On the GOP side, it was only 34 to 46 percent.
And though Sanders is by no means inexperienced in politics, Clinton is the clear choice of Democratic voters who prioritize experience. Trump, meanwhile, is the quintessential outsider.
Given this stat, it's not at all a surprise that Clinton and Trump had such strong nights.
Scott Baker published 'FiveThirtyEight' Statistician Nate Silver Reports On The 2016 Election in News 2016-02-23 12:42:48 -0500
Oh no, I have to say that on balance, I'm worried about the state of polling right now.
So traditional telephone polls - and let's take the best polls, like Pew Research, for example, who do call cell phones. Their response rates - so how many people actually respond to the poll, the ones they would like to respond - has gone from about 35 percent 20 years ago to I think it is 9 percent now. So they're kind of hoping the 9 percent of people they do reach are representative of the 100 percent of people they would like to reach.
In some sense, it's worked remarkably well. I mean, the polls were pretty good in the past two presidential elections. But we've seen cases in other democracies, such as the United Kingdom, for example, Greece, Scotland, Israel, where the polls were pretty far off on election day. And I think that should worry people.
Eventually, I think, like everything else, we'll lead our lives online, and online polling will be the standard. But people haven't really figured out what the kind of gold-standard methodology is for online polling.
Listen to the full NPR - Fresh Air interview here.
Scott Baker published Voter Registration at Monaco U.S.A. - New Hampshire Primary in News 2016-02-04 07:55:11 -0500
Members of Democrats Abroad have been cordially invited to Monaco U.S.A.'s New Hampshire Primary Night event.
We will be welcoming all Americans in the region to register themselves to vote in the federal elections in November. DAF - Riviera will be promoting our non-partisan www.VoteFromAbroad.org web site that makes voter registration simple and easy for Americans living abroad.
09FEB @ 18h00
Stars n' Bars, quai Antoine 1er, 98000 MONACO
RSVP directly on their official Facebook page.
Scott Baker published No, Coin Flips Did Not Win Iowa For Hillary Clinton in News 2016-02-04 07:13:30 -0500
Gone unmentioned so far is that even if Clinton won that Miracle Six — and there were no other coin tosses — it would make little difference in the outcome. That is, in part, because of the complicated way Iowa Democrats allocate their delegates — and what was being reported on election night and what wasn't.
Read the full story here on NPR.
As the election year of 2016 kicks off, it is a good time to reflect on how we will vote. Not only are issues important but also the character of a candidate and how they approach decisions. Here's an interesting article that highlights how to approach the polling box:
- Do applaud careful reflection.
- Don't applaud insults.
- Do applaud feelings.
- Don't applaud manipulation.
- Do applaud collaborative behavior.
- Don't applaud black-and-white thinking.
- Do applaud apologies.
- Don't applaud evasiveness.
- Do applaud curiosity.
Read the full article here.
We are months away from our Democrat Global Primary where YOU get to cast your vote for the person who will be our Democrat presidential candidate in 2016. To support Americans living on the Riviera in making an informed vote in our local Democrat Global Primary, join the DAF - Riviera's Political Wines (first Wednesdays) to engage in an in-depth analysis of each candidate. Through a random selection, each month will focus on a different candidate and their viewpoints on current political issues, particularly those directly impacting Americans living abroad.
Please join us at our new location!
Parking: Palais de la Méditerranée or Grimaldi
Public Transport: several bus stops in walking distance: Congrès/Joffre, Grimaldi, or Gustave V
There is no formal entry fee to participate except to support our host, Bazar Café, by ordering 1 drink minimum.
To help DAF - Riviera coordinate this event, we ask that you RSVP - even if you are a 'maybe'!
Vice Chair, Riviera Chapter
Because elections have consequences . . .