Letter from Washington
To Democrats Abroad
31 January 2018
Tom Fina
Executive Director Emeritus
Last night Donald Trump delivered his first State of the Union address. At 80 minutes, with applause, it fell just short of Bill Clinton’s 89 minutes in 2000. And, unlike vintage Trump, it had been purged of his usual Twitter insults that the NYT put at 426 during his first year in office. But, it continued his practice since taking office of 2,140 false or misleading claims that the Washington Post caught by mid-January. Its Fact Checker ticked off 18 more last night.
After a few days more than a year in office, his approval by the public has remained around 40% with about 55% disapproving. At this point in their terms, Obama scored 51% approval, George W. Bush 87% and Clinton, 54%. Bush benefited from his response to the Sept 11, 2001 Al-Qaeda attacks in New York.
Public opinion about the President matters because of the implications that it has for the mid-term elections in November of this year. Right now, Republicans control both the White House and the two Houses of Congress. All of the seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate. At present, Republicans control the Senate 51 to 47 and would lose control if they lost only 2 Senate seats. They have 238 of the 435 seats in the House. Democrats would have to pick up 24 seats to have a majority there.
There are 40 Republicans and 16 Democrats who have announced that they will not run for re-election in the House. It is easier to win an open seat than to defeat an incumbent. That suggests that Democrats have more chance of picking up seats than do Republicans in November.
Generic polling in January 2018 gave Democrats a 5-point lead over Republicans, with 49 percent of registered voters saying they would support Democrats and 44 percent of voters saying they would support Republicans. That is a drop in the Democratic majority from 2017 when they had an 18 point lead.
Since World War II, the party controlling the White House has lost about 36 House seats in mid-term elections.
When the President has an approval rating of less than 50%, as Trump does now, his party loses 33 seats.
These two historic patterns suggest that Democrats have a chance to win control of both the House and Senate in November.
The recent elections in NJ, VA and AL provide additional reasons for Democratic optimism. The Democratic candidate in NJ won by 56% to 42%, the candidates in VA with 53% to 45% and Doug Jones won in AL on December 2017 with 49.97% to 43.34% in a solid red state.
That is all welcome news for us Democrats at a moment when so many Democratic achievements from FDR to Obama are being scrapped by the Trump administration. Secretary of the Interior Zinke’s war on national parks and monuments to open them to commercial exploitation. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos’s push to fund private schools rather than public schools. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt’s long history of opposition to the EPA which he sued repeatedly to block its enforcement of environmental laws. OMB Director Mick Mulvaney has stripped enforcement powers from Consumer Financial Protection Bureau office that specializes in pursuing cases against financial firms for breaking discrimination laws. Trump has refused to reappoint the remarkable Janet Yellen to Chair the Federal Reserve. It is safe to say that if Obama did it, Trump will undo it - if he can.
The only way to end these and more depredations is to elect a Democratic majority in the House and Senate. Only a determined Congressional majority can curb the wanton rampage that the narcissistic psychopath roaming the White House, with the complicity of the Republican Members of Congress, promises for next three years. Gear up for November!
DA Guatemala
http://www.democratsabroad.org/