April 11, 2025

We lost a battle, but the tide has turned


Commentary on the 1 April 2025 Florida Special Congressional Elections

By Scott Hoffman, 2024 DA FL State Team Co-Chair

Having been a campaign manager and pouring my heart and soul into a campaign for weeks and months, where at one point in the week before the election we were polling only three points behind despite being outspent 8:1, I understand what a gut-punch Tuesday night’s losses were to the Democratic candidates and staff.

Being a bit removed, now, I can tell you that this bodes well for Democrats in Florida for 2026.

In CD-1, the Republican defeated Democrat Gay Valimont by 15 points.  Only five months ago, in November 2024, Valimont lost to Matt Gaetz by 32 points, so a decrease of 17 points in the margin of victory. 

In CD-6 in November 2024, Mike “I share Top Secret war plans on Signal with journalists” Waltz won by 33 points, while on Tuesday Democrat Josh Weil lost by 14 points, a 19-point decrease in the Republican margin of victory.

This is good news for Democrats!  I’m reminded of comments by James Carville not that long ago, who observed that over 60% of the Florida electorate voted for a $15/hour minimum wage, as well as to restore voting rights to convicted felons who had completed their sentences.  “Florida,” Carville said, “is winnable.” 

Carville went on to explain that while Democrats would never win in some of the deepest red districts, the margin of victory is significant.  He continued, “The difference between a Democrat losing 80/20 and losing 72/28 is huge!” 

These previously deep-red districts are looking faded pink now, and if this holds for state-wide elections in 2026, Democrats will almost certainly gain seats.  Democrats can carry the major urban areas and win state-wide with red-district margins like we saw on Tuesday.

2026 will see Florida elect a new governor, a United States Senator, 28 members of the US House of Representatives, 120 members of the State House of Representatives, and 20 members of the State Senate, as well as other state-wide constitutional officers and scores of county and municipal positions.

To Gay Valimont and Josh Weil and their staffs, I say, yes, take the time to grieve.  You’ve earned it.  But know that your fight was a job well done, and Democrats in 2026 will look to build on the holes you poked in the Republican armor.

Scott Hoffman was the Campaign Manager for Kathy Lewis, 2020 Democratic Candidate for Florida Senate District 20.