Tervuren, Belgium—The following opinion piece is authored by Thomas K. Murphy, Ph.D., a long-time Department of Defense civilian with significant experience, having worked on several U.S. military locations overseas. The author is an observer of electoral politics and emphasizes the importance of voter turnout in the upcoming midterm elections, especially in swing districts, which, if followed, will inevitably lead to Democratic majorities in Congress and a return to a sense of normalcy in government—including desperately-needed oversight. Tom is a Maryland UOCAVA voter, resident of Belgium, and member of the Democrats Abroad Global Veterans and Military Families (VMF) Caucus.

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     It is no secret that the midterm elections of 2026 will be enormously important to the influence and success of both the Democratic Party and the restoration of sensible and responsible government in Washington, DC. Recent by-elections in Tennessee, Virginia, and New Jersey have clearly shown the unpopularity of the Trump Administration and the MAGA agenda, as Democrats carried the Governorships of Virginia and New Jersey by strong margins. Moreover, recently, in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, a red stronghold, a special election, while won by the Republican candidate by 8.9 percent, was a far cry from his 21 percent victory two years earlier. Democrats improved their performance by nearly 13 percent. Moreover, Miami just elected its first Democratic mayor in 30 years, and NYC elected a new Progressive mayor, twice defeating former Governor Andrew Cuomo.  This bodes well for Democrats in 2026, and many of these convincing Democratic victories owe their gratitude to overseas voters.

     Texas also weighs heavily in the 2026 congressional elections. In 2024, Trump secured about 46% of the Latino vote nationwide – a historic high for a Republican Presidential candidate. Trump won Texas by 14 points. Republican Governor Abbott has targeted 5 Democratic seats in Texas for redistricting – and 4 of these will be majority Latino. As an unusual twist, the attempt to dilute Democratic districts will also pull Republican voters from safe districts into new, redistricted Democratic ones, thus reducing their districts’ red margins. Should the Latino vote shift significantly, this could imperil previously safe Texas red seats. A recent University of Texas poll asked Latinos how they would vote today compared to 2024. The results showed Kamala Harris winning today by a margin of 11 points – a far cry from the 8% percent margin among Latinos that elected Trump in 2024. 

     Florida, Texas, and California are important political states, and all have significant Latino populations. Florida and Texas could be in play for the 2026 elections, depending on voter turnout, along with recently redistricted Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina.  For voters living abroad from these states, it is vital that you make a voting plan early. Step 1 is easy: First, fill out the Federal Post Card Application on or after January 1, 2026 (U.S. time), which you may obtain at any U.S. military Post Office overseas, or online at Vote From Abroad.

Second, check the election dates for your state. Then confirm your voting residence, which is generally where you are permitted to vote (i.e., your legal residence in the US). The local election office for your home voting address will send you a ballot – generally 45 days before the election. To avoid postal delays, request that your ballot be sent electronically. After you cast your ballot, it is good practice to follow up with your local election office to ensure that your ballot was received, verified, and actually counted.

     Remember, the military-connected community also has a huge stake in the November elections. Defense Department union employees getting late paychecks, the president calling for the death of a U.S. senator for repeating what current law states, no accountability for the sharing of classified information over the Signal app – all of these and many, many more mishaps and scandals continue to erode confidence in our personnel and damage our nation’s reputation around the world. If you oppose the VA continuing to slash tens of thousands of critical jobs for those taking care of veterans, if you support congressional oversight over this chaotic administration, or if you have been affected by the senseless book bans on military bases, your country needs you to vote, and that includes us living, working, traveling, studying, or serving abroad.  

     Multiple representatives of the current Congress have indicated they will not seek reelection in 2026 due to redistricting, retirements, legislative frustration, and other commitments. We could be talking about 10% of the members of Congress. Is your district/state affected? Have a look here. It is boilerplate rhetoric in the U.S. to claim that each election is “vital.” But 2026 is different. Our culture, our system of government, and our national dignity are on the line. Come out, vote, and turn the tide.  With an unreliable Congress and a federal court system filled with Trump appointees, strategic voting in 2026 is the most effective method to restore order in government.

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U.S. citizens living abroad, both civilian and military, are highly encouraged to check your voter registration status and request your ballot for any upcoming elections in your home voting state that you are eligible to vote in.

The Global VMF Caucus has over 1,400 members in dozens of countries and proudly consists of veterans, military family members, Department of Defense civilians, other national security professionals, and strong allies of veterans and military family causes. 

For questions pertaining to this statement, please reach out to [email protected].